Modesto, California

Population

Steady. Within 1% of 2020, every year since.

219,652

people, the 20th-largest of California's cities and towns.

Census Population Estimates, 2025. Rank among California's cities and towns computed by the Almanac. Sources: Census Population Estimates

The workday

7 in 10 jobs here go to people who live somewhere else.

66.7%

of 83,000 jobs located in Modesto are filled by in-commuters.

Census LEHD LODES, 2023. Sources: Census LEHD LODES

Unemployment, 2026

The low came in May: 5.8%.

6.8%

in August 2026, the latest month released. A year earlier it was 6.8%.

BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, monthly, through August 2026. Not seasonally adjusted, so compare with the same month a year earlier. Sources: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Rent

Median rent is up 77% since the 2005–2009 survey, before inflation.

$1,690

a month. California's median is $2,036.

Census ACS 5-year, 2020-2024 (latest), with earlier 5-year windows. Sources: Census ACS 5-year

The seam

Cross one tract line and median rent doubles.

A $1,438 gap between neighbors, the sharpest rent edge between adjacent tracts in Stanislaus County.

• $1,146 Tract 20.02
• $2,584 Tract 30.03

Census ACS 5-year, 2020-2024, adjacent tracts compared by the Almanac. Tract estimates carry wide margins of error. Sources: Census ACS 5-year

Room to build

The median rent is above what local wages can carry.

$1,088–$1,633

is the monthly rent range local workforce wages support.

• $1,690 median

Supportable rent computed by the Almanac from 2023 source wage data. Median rent: Census ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Sources: Computed by the Almanac, Census ACS 5-year

Building

Most of the housing here is older than 2000.

• 1,224 homes permitted, 2022–2025
• 34% of those were in multifamily buildings
• 87% of all homes were built before 2000

Census Building Permits Survey, 2022–2025; Census ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Sources: Census Building Permits Survey, Census ACS 5-year

Units needed

Closing the gap would add 0.5–1.1% to the 75,752 homes here.

375–830

is the estimated number of missing housing units, from the lowest to the highest of three estimates.

Range computed by the Almanac from 2023 jobs and household data, using three demand models: 1% of jobs located here, 1% of renter households, and a rate by town size applied to renters. The low end is the lowest of the three and the high end the highest. It is an estimate, not a count. Sources: Computed by the Almanac

Home value

A median home costs 40% less than California's.

$442,700

median home value in Modesto.

• $442,700 Modesto
• $734,700 California
• $332,700 U.S.

Census ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Sources: Census ACS 5-year